Japan’s Likely Next Leader Ishiba Plans Election for October 27

Image Name: Ishiba

Image Credit: Imago Images

Shigeru Ishiba, former Defense Minister and leading figure in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is likely to become the next Prime Minister of Japan. Japan politics is known today for intense excitement and competition as different political forces stake their claims. Amid the challenges, Ishiba has already taken a bold step by announcing his intention to call a national election on October 27. This move has sparked speculation on Japan’s immediate future, how the political dynamics within the LDP are going on, and the impact this move will have on regional and global policies.

Who is Shigeru Ishiba?
Shigeru Ishiba is a familiar figure in Japan politics. A seasoned lawmaker with over four decades of experience, he has held several key positions to and including the offices of Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and, most notably, Defense Minister. He is known as a defense hawk, always pushing for a more significant military posture especially when viewed against intensifying threats in the Asia-Pacific region.

Ishiba has consistently been an opponent of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida within the LDP. Unlike most of his colleagues within the party, Ishiba is often assumed to be representing the views of rural voters, a group that has lost political clout in recent decades. Practical and very down-to-earth, Ishiba is a politician who emphasizes concrete policies over the ideological points some of his predecessors have been made famous with.

The Call for October 27 Elections
Ishiba’s declaration of a general election on October 27 has many raising an eyebrow. This step is a simple tactical maneuver designed to consolidate his own position within the LDP and among Japanese public opinion before his formal appointment as Prime Minister. That reads like a page from Shinzo Abe’s political playbook, which made snap elections for a consolidation of power and to get a mandate from the electorate.

As much as is still unsubstantiated about Ishiba’s leadership, his election prospects look bright. If he can cement his leadership of the LDP, he will likely stand a good chance of winning the Prime Ministership. The announcement at this juncture does, however, signal bold risk-taking—something the LDP may be reluctant to do in light of economic challenges and growing voter discontent.

Domestic Challenges Await
Japan has many domestic problems that will surely form the heart of political debates and campaigns in the future. First, is economic stagnation. The world’s third economy may not be said to gain grudgingly high rates, and this is further complicated with inflation and other problems compounded by instability in the rest of the world’s economy. Ishiba has said he will include economic reform in his agenda. His platform is to revitalize Japan’s economy, starting with the rural localities afflicted by depopulation and economic decline. He will also probably address the ballooning public debt of Japan, one of the highest worldwide.

Finally, the issue of an aging population poses a significant challenge to Japan. With a declining birth rate and an increasingly elderly population, social welfare programs, health care systems, and labor markets are all under pressures. These issues are likely to dominate the electoral debates, and Ishiba will be pressed for clear solutions for these challenges.

Image Name: Japan Elections

Image Credit: The Press Democrat

Foreign Policy and Regional Issues
His foreign policy approach is expected to be assertive, especially when it comes to its defense and neighboring countries. Ishiba has long advocated that Japan should play a more proactive role in its defense. He might even lobby for constitutional amendments that would actually make it easier for Japan to implement its right on collective self-defense much more freely, thus still inline with policies pushed by Abe but with his distinct twist. Another critical concern is Japan’s relationship with China and North Korea. Regional security tensions have been deepening, especially with China’s increasing military presence in the South China Sea and North Korea’s continued missile tests.

Ishiba has also been a strong proponent for the consolidation of Japan’s military alliances-primarily with the United States-to respond to these threats. Besides, his approach towards Russia will be closely monitored. Japan and Russia have longstanding territorial disputes over the Kuril Islands. However, Ishiba has not yet announced specific measures on this issue. Yet, the defence background appears to point out that he will be a little more aggressive than the previous prime ministers.

LDP’s Internal Dynamics
The Liberal Democratic Party remains the real powerful force in Japanese politics, dominating the politics’ landscape for several decades. Factionalism in the party runs rife and will pose some challenges to Ishiba’s leadership because he has always been an outsider to the dominant factions of the party and at odds with Abe and Kishida on numerous occasions. One of Ishiba’s first challenges will be to ensure the unification of the party in preparation for election. The kind of leadership Ishiba is likely to adopt has been expected to differ from his predecessors since Abe was criticized for concentrating power and decision-making processes. Instead, Ishiba is said to have a consensus-seeking approach to leadership. This may well go a long way toward healing some of the factional divisions within the party, but it is yet to be seen whether he can really manage these dynamics while leading the country.

What to Expect on October 27?
The election, scheduled on October 27, is critical not only to Ishiba but also to Japan’s political landscape. It will be a referendum on Ishiba’s vision for the country: whether he can get a strong mandate and thus gather the political capital needed for important reforms and the implementation of some of Japan’s pressing issues. However, the election may also expose weaknesses within the LDP. Voter disappointment has been rising, especially among the youth who are not included in the traditionalist policies. The economic frustration combined with concern over the wrong handling of Japan by international crises such as the COVID-19 and inflation may present a greater performance by the opposition than one would expect.

Conclusion
Shigeru Ishiba’s elevation and the election date set for October 27 send the right message through Japanese politics. In the short term, he will have quite difficult domestic issues: there will be an absolute need for reform, especially concerning the economy, all this while dealing with an aging population and still being worried about regional security concerns. So his chances for success depend not only on his ability to unite the LDP but also win over an unbelieving public. The whole world will hold its breath while waiting for Japan to get ready for what appears to be a critical election-one that can change the country’s future for many years to come.